2026 Election Poll Tracker

Note: Polling data shown may not reflect the latest available results. Polls are aggregated from public sources and updated periodically. Last data refresh: March 15, 2026.

Real-time polling averages for Senate, House, and Governor races across the country. Updated daily from major polls.

National Overview

22
Dem Senate Seats
12
GOP Senate Seats
8
Toss-up Races
36
Governor Races

Last updated: March 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET

Senate Balance

Democrats currently hold 51 seats (including 3 independents who caucus with Democrats). Republicans hold 49 seats. With 34 seats up in 2026, control of the Senate is at stake.

Dem 51
GOP 49

Current Senate composition (100 seats)

Most Competitive Senate Races

View All 35 Races →
Alaska Toss-up
Dan Sullivan (R) - Incumbent, seeking third term; at about 42% in primary (certified), advancing to RCV general
Mary Peltola (D) - Former US Rep; led primary at about 49% (certified), advancing to RCV general; sole Democrat on ballot after Leslie withdrew
Dan J. Sullivan Jr. (R) - Retired teacher from Petersburg; name-sharing 3rd-place finisher (certified), advancing to RCV general
Alaska Survey Research (fielded Sep 10-12, 1,352 LV, MoE 3%): Peltola 48.4, Sullivan 43.8 first round; Peltola hits 50% in RCV Round 2 against all three opponents; Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP (fielded Sep 8-11, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, bipartisan): Peltola 46, Sullivan 41 first round; Peltola 53, Sullivan 47 in RCV simulation; Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 13-14 (1,188 LV): Sullivan 39, Peltola 39 (tied first round in 4-way field), Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 7%, Heikes 6%, 9% unsure; Alaska Survey Research Aug 2-5 (1,371 LV, MoE 3%): Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 (RCV final round); Data for Progress Jul 28-Aug 4 (605 LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned): Peltola 47 first round, 53 in simulated RCV final over Sullivan 47; NYT/Siena Jun 15-29: Sullivan 47, Peltola 45. Inside Elections moved from Lean R to Tilt R on Sep 3 (Cook and Sabato remain Toss-up). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Alaska Toss-up
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) - Former state legislator from Sitka; led Aug 18 primary with 21.62% (certified); sole active Democratic candidate after Begich endorsed him Aug 28
Tom Begich (D) - Former state senator; 20.07% (certified); suspended campaign Aug 28 citing funding, endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins; remains on ballot under Alaska RCV rules
Bernadette Wilson (R) - 10.44% (certified); advancing to RCV general
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP (fielded Sep 8-11, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, bipartisan): Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 14 first round; Kreiss-Tomkins 55, Wilson 45 in RCV simulation (Begich remains on ballot but is suspended; Taylor 7% is not on the November certified ballot). Cook Political Report moved from Lean R to Toss-up on Sep 17, 2026, citing Republican split vote and AARP poll data; Sabato's Crystal Ball moved from Likely R to Toss-up Sep 3, 2026. Both Cook and Sabato now rate the race Toss-up. Two Democrats led the Aug 18 primary; with Begich's withdrawal the effective matchup is Kreiss-Tomkins (D) against Wilson and Bronson (both R). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Georgia Toss-up
Rick Jackson (R) - Won Jun 16 runoff over Trump/Kemp-endorsed Burt Jones; Trump endorsed Jul 22
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) - Former Atlanta mayor; won Dem primary
YouGov (fielded Sep 15-18, 3,447 RV, MoE 2.7%): Jackson 45, Bottoms 44 (statistical tie, 9% undecided); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 14, published Sep 16, 1,019 LV, MoE 3%): Jackson 48, Bottoms 45 (Jackson +3, within MoE); InsiderAdvantage Aug 16-17 (800 LV, MoE 3.46%): Jackson 46.3, Bottoms 46.2 (statistical tie); Natural Gas Assoc of GA Jul 29-Aug 1 (MoE 3.6%): Bottoms 46.4, Jackson 44.9 (statistical tie); Fox News Jul 13-16: Bottoms 52, Jackson 47 (1,060 voters, MoE 3%); State Navigate Jul 10-13: Bottoms 51, Jackson 44; Wick Jun 27-30: tied 43-43 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Iowa Toss-up
Ashley Hinson (R) - Congresswoman, Trump-endorsed, won Jun 2 primary 73.9%
Josh Turek (D) - State representative, won Jun 2 primary 62.6%
InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 26, R-leaning firm): Turek 47, Hinson 46, Leith (L) 2% (Turek +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,050 RV, MoE 4.4%): Turek 50, Hinson 42 (Turek +8; registered voters); co/efficient fielded Sep 14-16 (831 LV, MoE +/-3.39%): Hinson 46, Turek 42 (Hinson +4, 9% undecided); Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 15, R-leaning sponsor, treat with caution): Turek 43, Hinson 43 (tied); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,031 LV, MoE +/-2%): Turek 45, Hinson 40, Laehn 4%, 11% undecided (Turek +5; cross-tab: Turek +11 among women, Hinson +3 among men; Turek 83% D, 14% R, 49% unaffiliated; Hinson 75% R, 5% D, 28% unaffiliated); Global Strategy Group for Turek campaign (fielded Aug 27-31, D-aligned partisan internal poll, treat with caution): Turek 46, Hinson 42, Libertarian Laehn 6%; Emerson for Nexstar fielded Aug 31-Sep 1 (750 LV, CI +/-3.6%): Hinson 50, Turek 45 (Hinson +5); Wedgewood (fielded Aug 29): Hinson 50, Turek 48 (Hinson +2); Suffolk University fielded Aug 20-23 (500 LV, MoE 4.4%): Hinson 45, Turek 41 (Hinson +4); Emerson fielded Aug 2-4 (712 LV, MoE 3.7%): Hinson 48, Turek 45; Fox News Jun 23-27: Turek 50, Hinson 46; NYT/Siena Jun 15-27: Hinson 48, Turek 46 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Maine Toss-up
Susan Collins (R) - Incumbent, seeking sixth term
Troy Jackson (D) - Former state Senate president; formally nominated at Jul 25 Bangor convention with 90%+ of delegates; all serious rivals dropped out by Jul 19
InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 26, R-leaning firm): Jackson 46, Collins 46 (tied); UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (fielded Sep 17-21, released Sep 24): Jackson 51, Collins 47 (within MoE, statistical tie); UMass Lowell/YouGov (released Sep 24, field dates unconfirmed, 650 LV, MoE ~4.5%): Jackson 48, Collins 43 (Jackson +5, 6% undecided); NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22, 619 LV, MoE 4.8%): Collins 49, Jackson 46 (Collins +3, within MoE); Quantus Insights fielded Sep 14-15 (MoE 4.3%): Collins 47.1, Jackson 46.4 (Collins +0.7, within MoE, statistical tie); YouGov (fielded Sep 8): Jackson 48, Collins 44; Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,033 LV, MoE +/-2%): Jackson 46, Collins 45 (statistical tie); SRSS for CNN (fielded Aug 31-Sep 7, 880 LV, MoE 3.7%): Jackson 48, Collins 45 (statistical tie); Abacus Data (released Aug 29, field dates unconfirmed): Jackson 52, Collins 43 (LV); Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV): Jackson 48, Collins 46; UNH Jul 15-20: Jackson 49, Collins 46 (1,236 respondents, MoE +/-2.8%); SurveyUSA Jul: Jackson 45, Collins 44; Senate Majority PAC/Hart Research (Jul 27-Aug 1, D-aligned partisan poll): Jackson 49, Collins 45. Inside Elections moved from Tilt R to Toss-up on Sep 17, 2026 (Inside Elections, Cook and Sabato all now rate Maine Toss-up). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Minnesota Toss-up
Peggy Flanagan (D) - Lt. Governor; won Aug 11 DFL Senate primary over Rep. Angie Craig 58.7-39.7%
Michele Tafoya (R) - NRSC-endorsed; won Aug 11 GOP Senate primary with about 52% over state party-endorsed Schwarze and Royce White
SurveyUSA (completed Sep 16, field start unconfirmed): Flanagan 42, Tafoya 42 (statistical tie); co/efficient (fielded Sep 14-15, 833 LV, MoE 3.38%): Flanagan 43, Tafoya 42 (Flanagan +1, statistical tie); TIPP (fielded Aug 31-Sep 2): Flanagan 44, Tafoya 42 (Flanagan +2, within MoE); KSTP/SurveyUSA (post-primary, Aug 2026): Flanagan 46, Tafoya 41 (Flanagan +5, within MoE). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Nevada Toss-up
Joe Lombardo (R) - Incumbent; won primary with 91%
Aaron Ford (D) - Attorney General; won primary with 63.8%
Emerson for KLAS-TV (fielded Sep 5-8, 680 LV, MoE 3.7%): Ford 44, Lombardo 42 (11% undecided); PPP/DGA Jul 15-16: Lombardo 44, Ford 44 (tied, 558 likely voters); Jun 2026: Lombardo 45, Ford 42 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
New Hampshire Toss-up
Chris Pappas (D) - US Rep; won Sep 8 Dem primary about 65% over Manzur (updated count, NBC News, NHPR)
John Sununu (R) - Former US Senator, Trump-endorsed; won Sep 8 GOP primary about 68.5% over Brown and Sivalingam (updated count, NBC News, Roll Call)
UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (released Sep 24, field dates unconfirmed): Pappas 50, Sununu 42 (Pappas +8); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22): Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (Pappas +5, sample size and MoE unconfirmed); InsiderAdvantage (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 18, LV, MoE 2.83%): Pappas 48, Sununu 40 (Pappas +8; treat with caution, field dates unavailable); co/efficient (fielded Sep 9-11, 958 LV, MoE 3.15%): Sununu 46, Pappas 46 (tied, 9% undecided); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,000 LV, MoE +/-2%): Pappas 45, Sununu 34 in full multi-candidate general field (Constitution Party candidate Laplante 2%, four independents split 11%, 9% undecided; two-way head-to-head would be closer; field dates overlap primary day so cross-tabs reflect mixed pre/post-primary opinion); UNH fielded Aug 20-24: Sununu 45, Pappas 43 in general (Sununu leading, reversal from Jul); St. Anselm fielded Aug 17-18: Pappas 48, Sununu 41; UNH Jul: Pappas 47, Sununu 44 (general) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Ohio (Special) Toss-up
Jon Husted (R) - Appointed incumbent (filling JD Vance's seat)
Sherrod Brown (D) - Former three-term senator
Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 22-23): Brown 46, Husted 43 (Libertarian Redpath 3%, Independent Levy 2%, 7% undecided); Quantus Insights for Newsweek (fielded Sep 21-23, 695 LV, MoE 4.2%): Brown 46, Husted 45 (statistical tie); Trafalgar Group (fielded Sep 14-16, 1,085 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Brown 45, Husted 42 (Brown +3); InsiderAdvantage fielded Sep 9 (MoE 2.83%): Brown 47, Husted 42 (Brown +5); BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov fielded Sep 1-10 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.96%): Brown 48, Husted 45 (Libertarian Redpath 2%, Independent Levy 3%); Abacus Data (released Aug 28, field dates unconfirmed): Brown 52, Husted 46; Wedgewood Aug 11-13 (800 LV, MoE 4%): Brown 48, Husted 44; Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV, MoE 3%): Brown 53, Husted 45; Fox News May 28-Jun 1: Brown 53, Husted 45; AARP Jun 14-16: Brown 48, Husted 45; BGSU/YouGov (field dates unconfirmed, likely early 2026): Husted 50, Brown 47 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Ohio Toss-up
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) - Entrepreneur, won May 5 primary
Amy Acton (D) - Former state health director, unopposed in primary
BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network fielded Sep 1-10 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.96%): Acton 48, Ramaswamy 45 (Acton +3, within MoE); Wedgewood Aug 11-13 (800 LV, MoE 4%): Acton 47, Ramaswamy 46; Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV, MoE 3%): Ramaswamy 50, Acton 48; Impact Research Jul 24-28: Ramaswamy 47, Acton 46 (800 LV, MoE 3.5%); AARP Jun 2026: Acton 47, Ramaswamy 44; NYT/Siena: tied 47-47 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Texas Toss-up
Ken Paxton (R) - State AG, won May 26 runoff over incumbent Cornyn
James Talarico (D) - State representative, won Dem primary 52.4%
TPOR (fielded Sep 19-22, 1,007 LV, MoE 3.6%): Talarico 49, Paxton 44 (Libertarian Brown 3%, 3% undecided, Talarico +5); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,139 RV, MoE 4.4%): Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (Talarico +6); TSU/Barbara Jordan Center (fielded Sep 15-19, 1,800 LV, MoE 2.31%): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (Talarico +1; Libertarian Brown 3%, 4% undecided); SoCal Strategies fielded Sep 12-13 (649 LV, R-leaning firm): Talarico 50, Paxton 45 (Talarico +5); Emerson for The Hill fielded Sep 12-14 (1,000 LV, MoE 3%): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (statistical tie); Mason-Dixon for Telemundo fielded Sep 8-10 (625 RV, MoE 4%): Talarico 46, Paxton 43 (3% Libertarian, 8% undecided); YouGov for N+ Univision (fielded Aug 27-Sep 4, 1,000 RV with Hispanic oversample): Talarico 48, Paxton 43 (Talarico +5); Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP (fielded Aug 30-Sep 1, 895 LV, bipartisan polling team): Talarico 48, Paxton 44; InsiderAdvantage (R-leaning firm, field dates unconfirmed, released ~Sep 9-10): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (treat with caution); Overton Insights for TPPF fielded Aug 24-26 (1,167 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning sponsor): Talarico 44, Paxton 43.6 (12.6% undecided); Slingshot Strategies (D, partisan) fielded Aug 24: Talarico 48, Paxton 42 (D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution); UT/Texas Politics Project fielded Aug 5-13 (1,200 RV, MoE 2.83%): Talarico 42, Paxton 39 (3% Libertarian, 14% undecided); Emerson Aug 9-10: Paxton 47, Talarico 46 (tied within MoE); TSU/Barbara Jordan Center Aug 4: Talarico 47, Paxton 45; Fox News Jul 23-27 (1,006 RV, MoE 3%): Talarico 51, Paxton 48; TPOR Jul 15-17 (1,048 LV): Talarico 45, Paxton 40 (Talarico +5, MoE 3.4%); NYT/Siena: tied 47-47 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Arizona Lean D
Katie Hobbs (D) - Incumbent; won Jul 21 Democratic primary unopposed
Andy Biggs (R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Jul 21 GOP primary over Schweikert
Noble Predictive Insights, fielded Aug 10-13 (LV): Hobbs 48, Biggs 35 (Hobbs +13); AARP Jul 26-28 (MoE 3.2%): Hobbs 52, Biggs 44 (Hobbs +8); Emerson (Jul 2026 pre-primary): Hobbs 44, Biggs 43; Biggs won Jul 21 GOP primary with ~70% Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Florida Lean R
Byron Donalds (R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 18 GOP primary with about 48% over Jay Collins (25%), James Fishback (10%), and Paul Renner (9%)
David Jolly (D) - Former GOP congressman who switched parties; won Aug 18 Dem primary with about 61% after Jerry Demings dropped out in June following a prostate cancer diagnosis
Stetson University (fielded Sep 14-21, n=830): Donalds 51, Jolly 39 (Donalds +12; contrasts sharply with St. Pete Polls statistical tie same period, likely a methodological difference); St. Pete Polls (fielded Sep 15-17, 913 LV, MoE 3.2%): Donalds 44, Jolly 43 (statistical tie); UNF Jul 8-17: Donalds 46, Jolly 41 (general matchup, MoE +/-3.8%); Emerson Jul 9-11: Jolly 46, Donalds 42 (general matchup) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Iowa Lean D
Zach Lahn (R) - Businessman; upset win with 37.65% over Rep. Randy Feenstra
Rob Sand (D) - State Auditor; unopposed for Dem nomination
Emerson fielded Aug 31-Sep 1: Sand 49, Lahn 46; Emerson Aug 2-4 (LV): Sand 48, Lahn 43; Fox News Jun 23-27: Sand 53, Lahn 44; NYT/Siena Jun: Sand 48, Lahn 47 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Kansas Lean R
Roger Marshall (R) - Incumbent, won Aug 4 GOP primary
Adam Hamilton (D) - Methodist pastor; won Aug 4 Democratic primary from crowded 11-candidate field
Wedgewood Polls (field dates unconfirmed, released ~Sep 25-26): Hamilton 50, Marshall 48, Graham (L) 2% (Hamilton +2); Emerson for Nexstar fielded Sep 15-16 (750 LV, MoE 3.6%): Hamilton 45, Marshall 43 (Libertarian Graham 4%, 8% undecided; Hamilton +2, first independent poll to show Hamilton ahead this cycle) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Kansas Lean R
Ty Masterson (R) - Senate President, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 4 GOP primary with 42% over Secretary of State Scott Schwab and others
Cindy Holscher (D) - State senator; won Aug 4 Democratic primary
Nominees set after Aug 4 primaries: Masterson won GOP primary with 42%; Holscher won Democratic primary. Open seat, Kelly term-limited. Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Michigan Lean D
Abdul El-Sayed (D) - Progressive public health advocate; won Aug 4 Democratic primary over Rep. Haley Stevens despite $60M+ in outside spending against him (NBC News projection)
Mike Rogers (R) - Former congressman, 2024 nominee, GOP nominee
Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 22): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 44; NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22): El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +5, sample size and MoE unconfirmed); Suffolk University (fielded Sep 16-20, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40 (El-Sayed +7); InsiderAdvantage (field dates unconfirmed, completed Sep 17, MoE 2.83%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (El-Sayed +2, treat with caution, field dates unavailable); Washington Post/Schar School fielded Sep 10-14 (803 LV, MoE 3.9%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (El-Sayed +3, within MoE); Emerson for The Hill fielded Sep 12-14 (1,000 LV, MoE 3%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (El-Sayed +2, within MoE); Trafalgar Group fielded Sep 7-9 (1,079 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): El-Sayed 46.3, Rogers 44.8 (El-Sayed +1.5, within MoE); SRSS for CNN (fielded Aug 31-Sep 6): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +3, statistical tie); EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WDIV-TV (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, published Sep 8, 600 LV, MoE 4%): Rogers 45.8, El-Sayed 44.4 (Rogers +1.4, within MoE, statistical tie); EPIC-MRA fielded Aug 22-28 (600 LV, MoE 4%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 43 (El-Sayed +4); IPPSR/MSU (YouGov panel, fielded Aug 10-20, 1,000 adults, released Sep 1): El-Sayed 50, Rogers 45 LV; El-Sayed 48, Rogers 44 RV; AARP fielded Aug 9-11 (877 LV, MoE 3.3%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 47; TIPP (field dates unconfirmed, post-primary Aug 2026): El-Sayed 45, Rogers 42; Susquehanna fielded Aug 11-17 (800 LV): El-Sayed 46, Rogers 39 (El-Sayed +7); Fox News fielded Aug 6-10 (1,006 RV, MoE 3%): Rogers 51, El-Sayed 47; EPIC-MRA fielded Jul 24-31: Rogers 46, El-Sayed 43; Mitchell Research fielded Jul 28-31 (672 LV): Rogers 45, El-Sayed 45 (tied); Glengariff fielded Jul 22-24: Rogers 49, El-Sayed 39 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Michigan Lean D
Jocelyn Benson (D) - Secretary of State; won Aug 4 Democratic gubernatorial primary over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson
John James (R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 4 GOP gubernatorial primary over businessman Perry Johnson
Glengariff Group for Detroit News/WDIV-TV (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, 600 LV, MoE 4%): Benson 47, James 43 (Benson +4); EPIC-MRA fielded Aug 22-28 (600 LV, MoE 4%): Benson 45, James 41 (Benson +4); EPIC-MRA Jul 31 (post-primary): Benson 47, James 38 (Benson +9); Mitchell Research Jul 28-29 (672 LV, post-primary): Benson 46, James 44 (Benson +2); Sabato's Crystal Ball moved from Toss-up to Lean D on Jul 23 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
New Hampshire Lean R
Kelly Ayotte (R) - Incumbent; won Sep 8 GOP primary easily over Fife and McClory (AP called)
Cinde Warmington (D) - Former executive councilor; won Dem primary, ran effectively unopposed
UNH Survey Center fielded Aug 20-24 (released Aug 27): Ayotte 49, Warmington 39 (2,100 respondents); UNH Survey Center Jun 30: Ayotte 44, Warmington 39 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
North Carolina Lean D
Roy Cooper (D) - Former Governor, Democratic nominee
Michael Whatley (R) - Former RNC chair, Trump-backed Republican nominee
ECU Center for Survey Research (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, 675 LV): Cooper 46, Whatley 39 (Cooper +7; forced choice: Cooper 52, Whatley 44); Trafalgar Group (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 10, 1,084 LV, MoE 2.9%): Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (Cooper +6); Elon University Poll (fielded Aug 21-31, released Sep 10, LV, MoE 5.6%): Cooper 49, Whatley 38 (Cooper +11); High Point University Aug 3-12 (LV): Cooper 50, Whatley 45 (+5); Carolina Journal Aug 9-10: Cooper 51.5, Whatley 39 (+12.5); Fox News Jul 28-Aug 5 (1,000 RV): Cooper 53, Whatley 44; Elon Univ late Jul: Cooper 53, Whatley 42 (+11); Carolina Forward Aug 2026: Cooper 50, Whatley 43; Emerson Aug 1 (CBS17): Cooper 47, Whatley 41; PPP Jul 10-11: Cooper 48, Whatley 44 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Oregon Lean D
Tina Kotek (D) - Incumbent, won primary with 84%
Christine Drazan (R) - 2022 nominee, won primary with 41%
Nominees set; primaries held May 19, 2026; first OR gubernatorial rematch since 1978; Cook Political Report moved from Solid D to Likely D on Jul 10, then from Likely D to Lean D on Sep 10, 2026, as Kotek's numbers tightened. Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Texas Lean R
Greg Abbott (R) - Incumbent, won primary with 82%
Gina Hinojosa (D) - State representative, won primary with 59%
TPOR fielded Sep 19-22 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.6%): Abbott 50, Hinojosa 46 (Abbott +4); Mason-Dixon for Nexstar (fielded Sep 8-10, 625 RV, MoE 4%): Abbott 48, Hinojosa 41 (Abbott +7); YouGov for N+ Univision (fielded Aug 27-Sep 4, 1,000 RV with Hispanic oversample): Abbott 47, Hinojosa 47 (tied, 5% undecided); Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) fielded Aug 21-24 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.3%): Abbott 49, Hinojosa 42 (Abbott +7) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Wisconsin Lean D
David Crowley (D) - Milwaukee County Executive; won Aug 11 Democratic primary narrowly over Francesca Hong; endorsed by Gov. Evers
Tom Tiffany (R) - US Representative, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 11 GOP primary
Marquette Law School (released Aug 26, fielded Aug 12-20, 891 RV, 738 LV, MoE 4%): Crowley 49, Tiffany 44 (LV); 44-44 (RV); TIPP Insights (field dates unconfirmed, approx. Aug 18): Crowley 47, Tiffany 43; Badger Battleground/Platform Communications, fielded Aug 12-13 (MoE 4.4%): Crowley 48, Tiffany 44; RMG Research/Napolitan, fielded Jul 20-24 and therefore pre-primary (MoE 3.5%): Crowley 46, Tiffany 43; GBAO for Protect Our Wisconsin/DGA, fielded Jul 30-Aug 3 (800 LV, MoE 3.5%): Crowley 47, Tiffany 44 (D-aligned partisan poll). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Connecticut Likely D
Ned Lamont (D) - Incumbent seeking third term; won Aug 11 Democratic primary over state Rep. Josh Elliott approx. 67-33%
Ryan Fazio (R) - State senator; GOP nominee
Lamont leads Fazio 49.7-29.5 in general matchup (SHU/WFSB/CT Insider Jul 21-26). Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Georgia Likely D
Jon Ossoff (D) - Incumbent
Mike Collins (R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed, won Jun 16 runoff 55.5% over Derek Dooley
InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 22-23, 1,200 LV, R-leaning firm): Ossoff 50, Collins 42 (8% undecided, Ossoff +8); YouGov (fielded Sep 15-18, 3,447 RV, MoE 2.7%): Ossoff 51, Collins 41 (Ossoff +10); Quantus Insights fielded Sep 14-16 (645 LV, MoE 4.3%): Ossoff 48.2, Collins 44.4 (Ossoff +3.8, within MoE); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 14 (1,019 LV, MoE 3%): Ossoff 51, Collins 42 (Ossoff +9); Trafalgar Group fielded Sep 10-12 (1,091 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Ossoff 49.4, Collins 42.8 (Ossoff +6.6); InsiderAdvantage Aug 16-17 (800 LV, MoE 3.46%): Ossoff 50, Collins 43 (Ossoff +7); AARP Jul 13-16: Ossoff 52, Collins 43 (1,060 LV, MoE 3%); Fox News Jun 23-27: Ossoff 56, Collins 43 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Minnesota Likely D
Amy Klobuchar (D) - US Senator; won Aug 11 DFL gubernatorial primary with 89.1%
Lisa Demuth (R) - MN House Speaker; won Aug 11 GOP gubernatorial primary with about 45% over Trump-endorsed Lindell (33%) and state party-endorsed Qualls; first Black major-party gubernatorial nominee in Minnesota history
co/efficient (fielded Sep 14-15, 833 LV, MoE 3.38%): Klobuchar 47, Demuth 45 (Klobuchar +2, within MoE); KSTP/SurveyUSA (post-primary, Aug 2026): Klobuchar leads statewide moderates 57-25; Demuth leads Klobuchar 44-42 in northeastern MN (within MoE). Pre-primary MN Poll: Klobuchar led Demuth by about 8 pts statewide. Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Nebraska Likely R
Pete Ricketts (R) - Incumbent, won May 12 primary with 81.8%
Dan Osborn (I) - Former union leader, 2024 candidate; no poll shows Ricketts pulling clear in a state Trump won by 20 pts
Wedgewood (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 16): Ricketts 52, Osborn 48 (Ricketts +4); SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes LLC (fielded Sep 8-13, 503 LV, MoE 6.4%): Osborn 46, Ricketts 42 (Osborn +4); Impact Research for Osborn for Senate, fielded Aug 9-13 (600 LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution): Ricketts 47, Osborn 47 (tied); Feb statewide: Ricketts 48, Osborn 47 (statistical tie); D-aligned Jul poll: Osborn +5 (partisan source, treat with caution) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
South Carolina Likely R
Annie Andrews (D) - Pediatrician, won Jun 9 Dem primary 61.5%
Darline Graham Nordone (R) - Trump-endorsed appointed interim senator; won Aug 25 runoff over Ralph Norman (AP projection). Led Aug 11 primary 32.7%, Norman 24.6%.
Emerson/Nexstar Jul 28-29 (n=500, MoE 4.3%): Norman 22%, Nordone 19%, Fry 12%, Sanford 11% (25% undecided); Aug 11 primary: Nordone 32.7%, Norman 24.6%, Fry 19.6%; Nordone won Aug 25 runoff. Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Florida (Special) Safe R
Ashley Moody (R) - Appointed incumbent; won Aug 18 GOP primary with about 80% over Chris Gleason (14%) and two others
Angie Nixon (D) - Florida state Rep., democratic socialist; upset front-runner Alex Vindman in Aug 18 Dem primary 56.1% to 43.9% (705,192 to 552,774 votes, CNN, NBC News projection)
Stetson University Poll (fielded Sep 14-21, n=830): Moody 51, Nixon 40 (Moody +11); Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report both rate Safe R following Moody's dominant primary win and Nixon's upset primary victory. UNF PORL fielded Jul 8-17 (848 LV, MoE 3.8%): Moody 50, Nixon 42 (pre-primary general-election matchup, pollster tested both Vindman and Nixon as Democratic opponents). Pre-primary vs. Vindman (now outdated): WLRN/Florida Phoenix Jul 20: Moody 50, Vindman 40; AIF Jun 3-7: Moody 47, Vindman 40. Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Massachusetts Safe D
Ed Markey (D) - Incumbent; won Sep 1 Democratic primary over Rep. Seth Moulton 64.9% to 35.1% (572,595 to 310,365 votes, final count; AP projection called at 8:31 p.m.)
John Deaton (R) - Won Sep 1 Republican primary over Nathan Bech; November challenger to Markey
Final Sep 1 primary result: Markey 64.9%, Moulton 35.1% (572,595 to 310,365 votes). Pre-primary polls for context: Emerson College (fielded Aug 28-29, 2026): Markey 60, Moulton 33; UNH Survey Center (released Aug 26, field dates unconfirmed): Markey 63, Moulton 28; Suffolk/Boston Globe Aug 13-16 (500 likely Dem primary voters): Markey 52, Moulton 38 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
New York Safe D
Kathy Hochul (D) - Incumbent
Bruce Blakeman (R) - Nassau County executive; also Conservative Party endorsed
Siena: Hochul 50, Blakeman 25 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Pennsylvania Safe D
Josh Shapiro (D) - Incumbent
Stacy Garrity (R) - State treasurer
Quinnipiac: Shapiro 55, Garrity 37 Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Rhode Island Safe D
Jack Reed (D) - Incumbent, seeking sixth term; won Sep 9 Democratic primary 76.8% (98,343 votes) over Burbridge (13.4%, 17,159 votes) and Munoz (9.8%, 12,483 votes) (RI Board of Elections final unofficial count)
Raymond McKay (R) - Won Sep 9 Republican primary; general-election challenger to Reed
UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (fielded Sep 17-21, released Sep 24): Reed 53, McKay 33 (Reed +20) Updated: Sep 28, 2026
Vermont Safe R
Phil Scott (R) - Incumbent, GOP nominee; ran effectively unopposed
Amanda Janoo (D) - Economist; won Aug 11 Democratic primary narrowly over Aly Richards
Morning Consult (Feb 2026): Scott 74% approval, most popular governor in the country. Updated: Sep 28, 2026

Top Governor Races

View All 36 Races →
North Carolina Competitive
Josh Stein (D)
49%
Mark Robinson (R)
45%
Avg. of 5 polls Updated Mar 15
Wisconsin Toss-up
Tony Evers (D) - Incumbent
47%
Tim Michels (R)
47%
Avg. of 4 polls Updated Mar 13
Michigan Competitive
Gretchen Whitmer (D) - Incumbent
51%
Tudor Dixon (R)
44%
Avg. of 6 polls Updated Mar 12